POLS2130 – Why Utility Numbers Matter Under Uncertainty

The same three outcomes, the same ranking — but under uncertainty, changing the utility values or the probabilities can change the rational choice. Under certainty, it never does.

A student is deciding between three options after graduation: Job A (high-paying corporate), Job B (moderate NGO), and Job C (low-paying but fulfilling startup).
She always prefers A to B to C: A ≻ B ≻ C. The ranking never changes.

Utility values (drag to change — ranking A > B > C is always preserved)

u(A): 100

u(B): 50

u(C): 10

Probabilities of getting each job

P(A): 0.20

P(B): 0.50

P(C): 0.30

Probabilities are normalised to sum to 1.

Why Utility Numbers Matter Under Uncertainty

☀️ Under Certainty Ordinal

🎲 Under Uncertainty Cardinal