POLS2130 · Week 4

Strategic Voting & Agenda Control

How rational voters game the rules — and how agenda-setters engineer outcomes even when all votes are sincere.

Sincere Voting
Vote for the most-preferred option at each stage, regardless of what others do or what the likely outcome is. True preferences are revealed directly.
Strategic Voting
Vote against a nominal preference when doing so produces a better reachable outcome — given what other voters are expected to do. Common in single-round elections.
Sophisticated Voting
A form of strategic voting specific to sequential agendas. Apply backward induction over the full sequence: vote against an immediate preference at an early stage to secure a better final outcome.
The Theorem. For any group choosing among at least three alternatives: if the voting rule is non-dictatorial and admits any preference ordering, then there will always exist some situation in which at least one voter has an incentive to misrepresent her true preferences — that is, to vote strategically.

Corollary: No voting rule is immune to manipulation. Changing the rule does not eliminate strategic incentives — it only changes who benefits and how.
Scenario. A student union elects a president by plurality voting (first-past-the-post): each voter casts one vote; the candidate with the most votes wins. There are three candidates — A (left), B (centre), C (right) — and three voter groups of roughly equal size.
Group1st choice2nd choice3rd choiceShare
Progressives ABC34%
Moderates BAC33%
Conservatives CBA33%
If all vote sincerely: A gets 34%, B 33%, C 33% → A wins.

Yet B is the Condorcet winner: B beats A (66–34) and beats C (67–33) in direct pairwise votes. B is the majority-preferred candidate — but does not win under sincere plurality voting.
Who has an incentive to vote strategically?

Conservatives (true order: C ≻ B ≻ A): their first choice C cannot win — tied at 33% while A leads at 34%. If they vote sincerely, C and B split the vote and A wins — their worst outcome.

Strategic move: Conservatives abandon C and vote B instead → B gets 66%, A 34%, C 0% → B wins.

Voting for their second choice is rational: it prevents their worst outcome. This is the logic of the wasted vote — under plurality, a vote for an unviable candidate has no effect on the outcome.

Choose how each group votes, then run the election.

Select voting behaviour above and click Run Election.
Agenda Control: The ability to determine which alternatives are considered and in what order. Whoever sets the agenda can often engineer their preferred outcome — even when all voters vote sincerely. Agenda power is most potent when a majority cycle exists: because every alternative can be beaten by some other, the agenda setter can work backwards from their desired winner to construct a sequence that delivers it.
Voting Agenda: The sequence in which alternatives are paired and voted on. For example, agenda ABC means A vs B first, then the winner vs C. Different agendas applied to the same preferences can — and under a cycle, will — produce different winners.
Example — You are the agenda setter

Pick which two alternatives face off first — the winner then faces the third. Same preferences, different order, different outcome.

Using the classic Condorcet cycle: A beats B (2–1), B beats C (2–1), C beats A (2–1). Under a cycle, whoever controls the agenda controls the outcome — each of the three possible agendas produces a different outcome.
Step 1 — Pick your Round 1 matchup
Scenario (four alternatives). A committee of three equal factions must choose among four budget options: W (Welfare), X (Research), Y (Teaching), Z (Status quo). Voting proceeds by binary majority rule: two alternatives are compared at a time; the winner advances to face the next.
Faction1st2nd3rd4th
F1 — WelfareWXYZ
F2 — ResearchXYZW
F3 — TeachingYZWX
These preferences produce a majority rule cycle: W beats X (F1+F3), X beats Y (F1+F2), Y beats Z (F1+F3), Z beats W (F2+F3) — so W ≻ X ≻ Y ≻ Z ≻ W. There is no Condorcet winner. The outcome depends entirely on the order of votes.

Click alternatives in order to set the agenda, then run the vote.

Each round: the first alternative faces the second; the winner faces the third; and so on. Select as many alternatives as you like — the vote runs only over those selected, in the order you chose.

Agenda:

Set an agenda and run the vote to see the result.
What this shows. Any of the four alternatives can be made the winner by choosing the right sequence — even though all votes are sincere. Try the following agendas to verify:

· X → W → Y → Z  → Y wins  (F3's preferred agenda)
· Y → Z → X → W  → W wins  (F1's preferred agenda)
· W → Y → Z → X  → X wins  (F2's preferred agenda)
· X → Y → W → Z  → Z wins  (status quo preserved)

The outcome is not determined by preferences alone — it is determined by who sets the agenda.